which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis

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b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment Appetite fails, and the relatives keep water cans beyond reach, despite temperatures well above 100 degrees in the shade. Galileo, Torricellis contemporary, attempted to test this by carrying a crude barometer to the top of a tall building, but the difference in the barometric reading between the base and the top of the building was negligible. Oona wants to conduct research on personnel management, workplace environment, and what type of environment results in high levels of employee productivity and efficiency. Observable outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. After a few seconds, I knew it was. Barbecues occur far more frequently than house fires, so they have a much higher prior probability; but when the observable outcomeway too much smokedoes not follow from the barbecue explanation, we are logically forced to the less probable explanation that it is a house fire. One variable is manipulated, while others are held constant. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. If there is good reason to expect it anyway, then the explanation is doing no work and receives no logical support. Find three images of sound in the poem and three instances of silence. But you can still ask whether such explanations make sense, and whether they make more sense than the alternative explanations. If the explanation leaves too much to mystery, or requires too much of established science to be replaced by less well-established views, then the argument can normally be no better than logically weak. d. They see it as part of their role. Frustration produces increased anger or pain. c. Aggression sometimes facilitates performance and sometimes does not. What do structuralism, Gestalt psychology, and Sigmund Freud all have in common? Many would argue that both the theory of evolution and creationism are equally probable because, after all, they are both theories. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. All of the following are elements of biological literacy EXCEPT: Having read the most important books in biology. Suppose I say to you, If he is from Chicago, then he is from Illinoisand he is indeed from Illinois, so he must be from Chicago. You cant be absolutely sure without some wider context, but it normally wouldnt make sense for me to explain someones residency in Illinois by pointing to his residence in Chicago. No. C. Your first thought would probably be that this supports the explanation that we are sometimes able to see into the future via our dreams. Step 1. Would it require the world to function in mysterious ways or in ways that differ dramatically from the ways that are well established by science? c. an interaction of situations and personal beliefs Included among your background evidence may be a belief that already serves as a perfectly good explanation for the outcomein which case, you would expect the outcome anyway. William James was the ________. In this section we will look at the improbability of the outcome. . Teacher to student: I never received your research paper. Suppose I tell you that I had a dream last night that I ran into a childhood acquaintance whom I had not seen for 30 yearsand that I then ran into him this morning? But, as Hempel suggests, that is not all they requirethey require imagination. This observable outcome easily follows from the Newtonian explanationthus, it would provide us with an argument with true premises. Those desperate to discredit a good explanatory argument might misuse this guideline. A century after Darwins visit, his countryman David Lack came here to study the tiny, drab birds that had helped inspire the theory of evolution. Nevertheless, we clarify and evaluate the argument just like the comet argument. The requirement that it be possible to specify some observable outcome of an explanation that could prove it to be false. Sample exercise. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. But we do not know anything about the actual investment strategies of this newly advertised manager, so we come up empty if we ask whether the explanation makes sense. Learn more about how Pressbooks supports open publishing practices. He was a man with some amount of self-importance and a certain air of command. serves here as an explanation of the otherwise unpredictable appearance of the comet on Christmas Day of 1758. If the prior probability of the explanation is extremely low and deception has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation, judge the logic of the argument to be weak. b. fans become more aggressive after watching violent contact sports In science, theories tend to be ___________ than hypotheses. Because the observable outcome rules out the leading alternative explanations, its prior probability is far lower than the anecdotal argumentand thus the argument is logically much stronger. Although police contended that the image was caused by light reflecting from the window of a neighboring house, the onlookers believed that it was a message from God. Ann Arbor News. c. Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that it is appropriate to be aggressive in a particular situation. a person's unconscious. Step 3. In short, coincidence has not been ruled out, so we cannot judge this to be a logically strong argument. Youll seethe audience will applaud at the end. WebExploratory research: Definition. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. This is another way of saying that, prior to making any judgment about whether the explanation is true or the outcome has been observed, there would be no good reason to expect the outcome. So my jealousy explanation flunks the test for low prior probability. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. b. Writing Personal Pronouns That Agree with Antecedents. Is the outcome stated precisely? Examine the list of all known species of birds and determine if any cannot fly. Punishment motivates learning better than does reward.. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask. The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. This represents the major premise of which theory? One habitat, selected at random, was sprayed with insecticide, and the other was used as a control. Waitdont tell meyour dog ate it, right?, Judge to scofflaw: So, my papers show that you failed to pay 48 separate parking tickets. My employer values me. As the decades passed it was not forgotten, and the comet appeared on Christmas Day, 1758. The logic of the argument is accordingly weak. The explanations prior probabilitythat is, its probability prior to judging whether the observable outcome is truemust not be implausibly low and it must be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. The best we can do is look at frequencies; and research shows that the vast majority of money managers turn in performances that are no better than chance. And, finally, you can ask if the explanation is sufficiently simple. a. Until then, the argument is no better than a product of Keys own imagination. When was psychology accepted as an academic discipline? d. college students studying counseling e. none of the above, b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment, Smith's research concerning violence in hockey showed that Randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better. Sample exercise. Hypotheses and theories not supported by trustworthy and methodical scientific studies. An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. For each of the following conclusions, create two arguments: an argument that (in normal circumstances) commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent and an explanatory argument. This is what happened with Torricellis hypothesis. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. A general explanation that makes sense will typically lend itself to observable outcomes that can be graphed smoothly; and the simpler theory is more likely to eventually be buttressed by an adequate conceptual framework. Clearly, smoking causes cancer. This supports which theory of aggression? This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. Develop strict alcohol control policies. And, though you may not find the ifthen premise, there are two things you can always expect to find if the argument is explanatory: reference to the explanation, often with a discussion of why it is better than alternative explanations; and reference to the observable outcome, often with a discussion of how unlikely that outcome would otherwise ], There are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions, What prehistoric culture created the huge and magnificent likeness of George Bernard Shaw that is topographically sculpted on the southern tip of an island in the Leaf River in northern Quebec? It must be emphatically added that the world is in many ways mysterious, and that science can be mistaken, and often is. The cages were then placed in the same spot where the frogs laid the eggs. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect Slightly less oxygen means that we get tired a little sooner; slightly worn brakes stop the car a little more slowly; slightly less sunlight means the plant grows a little shorter. Why do scientists refer to Charles Darwin's ideas about evolution as the theory of evolution? Skeptics have suggested another explanation: Perhaps this is because of peculiarities in each islands food. Where in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded? Echinacea has no effect on the duration and severity of the symptoms of the common cold. c. when participants perceive they are the recipients of poor officiating This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. This disregard for weather extended even to the pouring of concrete. Oona should conduct research in the area of ________ psychology. A team of researchers recently found no differences that would account for the beak variations. Complete each The only difference is that Geller claims that he is not using deception. But where either species lived by itself on an island, it developed a beak in between these two extremes. There are, however, several useful strategies that we will discuss next. B. But how can the mere belief that one is doomed be fatal? The sentence Newtons account of celestial mechanics is correct . There are two types of hypothesis. But it is possible to specify the lowest hurdle that must be cleared. Organisms are able to maintain relatively constant internal conditions that may differ from the external environment. The meteorites Martian roots will probably be debated until scientists agree on just how a piece of the planet could have been ejected with enough speed without vaporizing. It was all those asthma medications that I didnt need, she said. Sample exercise. Cognitive psychology focuses on studying ________. After each toss, all who tossed tailsabout half those still standinghad to sit down. Sample exercise. Which of the following is an example of an objective measure used by functionalists? Clearly, the plumber explanation has a much lower prior probability than does the affair explanation. Alternative explanation that already exists. First part: The prior probability of the prediction is extremely lowhelped especially by the inclusion of predictions (i.e., no relevant difference in food from island to island) that succeed in falsifying alternative hypotheses (i.e., that the difference is because of difference in food). , however, several useful strategies that we will look at the improbability the! A hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances that..., all who tossed tailsabout half those still standinghad to sit down sound in the area ________... Prior probability than does the affair explanation Pressbooks supports open publishing practices the. Sit down but how can the mere belief that one is doomed be fatal known species of birds and if! Expect it anyway, then the explanation is doing no work and receives no logical support extended even to pouring! Placed in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his wounded! Species lived by itself on an island, it developed a beak in between these two extremes explained by certain... Receives no logical support facts can best be explained by a certain air command! Supports open publishing practices Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that be... Effect on the duration and severity of the following is an example of an explanation that could prove to. Gestalt psychology, and often is each the only difference is that Geller claims he... Of concrete it developed a beak in between these two extremes, theories to. 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